A recent study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has revealed that the ongoing war in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has led to a severe economic collapse. If the conflict continues until the end of 2025, the country’s GDP is expected to shrink by as much as 42% compared to pre-war levels.
The crisis has displaced more than 14 million people, while over half of Sudan’s population now faces food insecurity due to the destruction of critical infrastructure.
According to the study, Sudan’s economy has already lost more than $26 billion. The industrial sector has contracted by 50%, around 4.6 million jobs have been lost, and poverty rates have surged dramatically, with an additional 7.5 million people at risk of falling into poverty. Rural communities and women have been particularly affected due to the collapse of income sources across the country.
The agricultural and food system—which once served as a lifeline for rural households—has seen a one-third decline in value, raising serious concerns about the potential for widespread famine.
The study outlines two possible scenarios for Sudan’s economic trajectory: one forecasts a sharp collapse followed by gradual recovery, while the other envisions a slow but prolonged decline.
In both scenarios, the study predicts devastating impacts across the manufacturing, agriculture, and services sectors, with national output not expected to exceed 60% of its pre-war level.
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