The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Sudan’s economy will grow after a brief contraction, accompanied by a decline in the annual inflation rate — provided that the ongoing war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) ends by the end of this year.
According to the IMF’s forecasts, Sudan’s economy is expected to grow by 3.2% this year, compared to an earlier projection of a 0.4% contraction, and to expand further to 9.5% in 2026, up from the previous estimate of 8.8%.
The Fund, however, maintained its estimate that the Sudanese economy contracted by 23.4% in 2024.
The IMF explained that its growth projections assume that the current conflict in Sudan will end by the close of this year, allowing for a brief pause before the start of reconstruction efforts.
It also projected that annual inflation will drop to 54.6% in 2025, and further decline to 16.1% in 2026, after reaching 87.2% in 2024.
The IMF noted that these forecasts are based on expert estimates, as Sudan has not updated its official economic data since 2019. The country’s statistical system has not been revised since the 1980s, and its national accounts framework has not been updated since 1982.
The projections were released amid the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings currently taking place in Washington, which continue until October 18.
Since the outbreak of the war on April 15, 2023, Sudan has witnessed widespread destruction of its industrial base, as well as disruptions to commercial, agricultural, and pastoral activities, leading to a sharp decline in government revenues.
